Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Mahan Abedin
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Will Iran and the Houthis attack Dubai?
As battle rages for the strategic port of Hudaydah, key questions are being raised about the conflict in Yemen, especially in regard to its regional and international components. The dominant analysis in the pro-Saudi camp is that the capture of Hudaydah may well prove to be a major turning...
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Iran set to secure optimum outcome after Iraqi elections
The Iraqi parliamentary elections in May has predictably been followed by a drawn-out process of complex manoeuvring and negotiations to determine the complexion of the new government. When it first emerged that Moqtada al-Sadr’s Al-Sairoon (the Marchers) block had come on top in the elections, speculation grew that Iran...
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Are Iran and Israel heading toward open warfare?
This year’s Quds (Jerusalem) Day in Iran was staged with greater fanfare than ever, not least because of rising tensions with Israel. Last month Israel claimed to have staged air strikes against the entire Iranian establishment in Syria. The air strikes of early May – widely judged to have...
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Iran prepares to go on the offensive against Israel
Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s meeting last Thursday with a Syrian religious delegation led by Religious Endowments Minister Mohammad Abdul Sattar Al-Sayyed unfolded at a critical juncture in the Syrian conflict. With the anti-Assad rebellion all but defeated, and various foreign powers, including Turkey and the United States, carving out...
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Why Iran and Britain can never be friends
Last week’s visit to the UK by Iranian deputy foreign minister Abbas Araghchi appears to signal warming relations between Iran and the United Kingdom. Araghchi’s meeting with UK officials, in addition to his speech at the prestigious Chatham House institute, speaks to a renewed push by the Islamic Republic...
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Israel suffers major setback in Syria
The military confrontation between Israeli and Syrian/Iranian forces on 10 February set off widespread analysis and speculation on the probability of a major regional war. The severity of the latest clash – with reports that Israel may have destroyed up to 50 per cent of Syrian air defence systems...
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Despite the tough rhetoric, Iran is on the back foot in Bahrain
Last week’s incendiary comments on Bahrain by a senior Iranian journalist and advisor to the country’s leader has reignited debate on the Islamic Republic’s approach to the ongoing political crisis in the small Gulf state. Hossein Shariatmadari’s statement that Bahrain “belongs” to Iran and that Bahrainis regard themselves as...
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Sochi Congress exposes limit of Russia’s influence
By most accounts, the Congress of Syrian National Dialogue held in the Russian resort of Sochi was less than a resounding success. Billed as the Russian equivalent to the Geneva peace process, the Sochi Congress risks becoming little more than political cover for Russia’s ambitions in Syria. For Russia,...
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In defence of Turkey’s Olive Branch operation
The Turkish offensive to wrest control of the Afrin region from the local branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is set to become a tough and bloody battle. Nevertheless, this battle is not only critical to Turkish national security, but equally vital for broader regional security. At stake...
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Idlib offensive heralds new phase of Syrian conflict
Since early in the new year the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies have been conducting an offensive against the country’s last major rebel bastion in the north-western Idlib province. The offensive on Idlib was widely anticipated and its outcome is largely predetermined. Idlib is not only the last...
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Despite protests Iran is set to maintain its interventionist regional policy
One of the striking features of the Iranian protests of late December and early January was the focus on the country’s foreign policy. Protesters often took a swipe at Iran’s regional policy of supporting non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah. This was encapsulated by the slogan, “neither Gaza...
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Will Ahmadinejad fall victim to Iran crackdown?
As the protests and rioting which gripped Iranian provincial towns subside, Iranian leaders and officials have wasted little time in attributing blame to foreign powers. The Iranian leader, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, blamed America and Israel for the unrest, whilst at the same time acknowledging legitimate economic grievances. This...
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Protests strike a blow at Iran’s prestige
“We are Aryans, we don’t worship Arabs” and “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon; I sacrifice my life for Iran” were just two of the bigoted and radical slogans voiced by Iran’s latest protest movement, which emerged suddenly last Thursday. They underline the uglier side of the protests and riots which...
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What next for the Palestinian Authority?
The decision by US President Donald Trump to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is a major turning point in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as in the broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Trump’s decision has finally blown away one of the greatest hoaxes of international politics, namely that the US is...
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Saleh’s departure further radicalises Yemen conflict
The killing of Yemen’s former leader Ali Abdullah Saleh earlier this month at the hands of the Houthis has dramatically raised the stakes of the Yemeni conflict. Freed from a half-hearted alliance with a former foe, the Houthis have pressed home their advantage by consolidating power in Sana’a. One...
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US shift on Jerusalem presents Iran with a strategic opportunity
As the repercussions of US President Donald Trump’s highly controversial decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital continues to reverberate across the region and beyond, there is much concern and uncertainty about the long-term impact of this decision. Most of the analysis has focussed on the apparent “demise” of...
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The insidious erosion of the Turkish-US partnership
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strong stance on US President Donald Trump’s anticipated recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital is yet another indication of a growing Turkish-US split. Turkey’s “red line” on Jerusalem, as demonstrated by a threat to server ties with Israel, underscores the volatility flowing from the...
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Russia moves to win the peace in Syria
Last week’s summit in the Russian town of Sochi between the Russian, Iranian and Turkish leaders is being billed as a potential breakthrough in the quest to bring peace to Syria. Sochi is the latest example of Russian diplomatic initiative in the midst of broader international inertia. Indeed, Sochi...
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France’s destabilising role in the Middle East
With the defeat of Daesh in Syria and Iraq, the mainstream media is focussing on the growing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia as the next big showdown in the region. The tension is apparently mounting daily especially on account of reports of covert contacts between Israelis and Saudis...
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The myth of an Israel-Saudi alliance
The Saudi decision to cause a political crisis in Lebanon by forcing Saad Hariri to resign his post as Lebanese prime minister has begun speculation of yet more dramatic events to unfold. Specifically, there are fears of a joint Saudi-Israeli effort to start a war in Lebanon. The argument...
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Syria endgame forces Saudi Arabia’s hand
The Syrian conflict is rapidly coming to a conclusion, as demonstrated by the government’s retaking of the strategic Deir Ez-Zor province. The Syrian government has pressed home its advantage by wresting control of the border town of Abu Kamal away from Daesh. The retaking of Abu Kamal is critically...
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Iran unsure about Hamas-Fatah reconciliation
The reconciliation accord reached between Hamas and Fatah earlier this month has raised hopes of lasting Palestinian unity in the face of an increasingly belligerent Israeli government. This is despite the United States government’s decidedly ambivalent attitude toward the accord. The US government’s insistence that Hamas must “disarm” and...
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Iraq strikes back in lightening Kirkuk offensive
The Iraqi Army and allied Popular Mobilisation Units’ lightening and relatively bloodless offensive to retake Kirkuk and other disputed areas is being widely interpreted as a shot in the arm for the embattled Iraqi state. It comes on the heels of Iraq’s recapture from Daesh of Hawija, the last...
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Iran and America: What next?
Donald Trump’s incendiary attack on Iran last Friday stands out as his most important action to date as US president. Whilst his decision to decertify the landmark nuclear accord of 2015 was expected, it was Trump’s concerted effort at projecting the Islamic Republic as darkly as possible that has...