Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Mahan Abedin
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Saudi Arabia’s outreach to Moscow underlines the loss of US influence
In a year of surprises in the Middle East, the visit to Moscow by the Saudi Arabian King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud is arguably the biggest surprise of all. This visit speaks of a realignment of regional priorities and is the latest evidence of a tentative Saudi shift away...
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Kurdish Nationalism and Western double standards
Barely a week after the controversial Iraqi Kurdish advisory independence referendum, the Spanish region of Catalonia held a similar vote. The similarities stop there, as the robust reaction of the Spanish authorities to the referendum could not be more different from that of Iraq’s enfeebled leaders and corrupt officials....
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Israel is struggling to adapt to the end of the Syrian conflict
As the Syrian conflict gradually winds down it is becoming easier to identify the winners and the losers. At a global level the conflict is seen widely as a big win for Russia, and by extension a loss for the United States. However, despite their significant differences, Russia and...
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Kurdish referendum set to plunge Iraq into existential crisis
As the Iraqi Kurdish administration continues to defy international opinion by pressing ahead with its plans to hold an advisory independence referendum next Monday, Iraq’s two most powerful neighbouring countries have stepped up rhetorical opposition to the move. At the weekend Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme...
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Israeli support for Kurdish statehood is a poisoned chalice
With the referendum on proposed Kurdish independence just two weeks away, the stage is being set for the gravest political and potential military crisis in post-Baathist Iraq. Months of intense lobbying by Iranian, Turkish and even American officials and interlocutors has failed to dissuade the Iraqi Kurdish leadership from...
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Iraqi politics heats up ahead of next year’s elections
As the fight against Daesh continues to grab international headlines, behind the scenes Iraqi politics is gearing up for a reset. With provincial and parliamentary elections scheduled for next year, there are signs that a significant rotation of elites may unfold in Baghdad. At the strategic level, the Iraqi...
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The Syrian rebellion enters its endgame
Credible reports centred on the collapse of Ahrar Al-Sham in north-west Syria point toward an important shift in the six-year Syrian rebellion. The group was widely regarded as the largest and most potent non-jihadi element of the Syrian rebellion. By definition, therefore, its collapse is a key indicator of...
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Iraq’s Shia political establishment is in turmoil
For the past three years virtually all news related to Iraq has been dominated by Daesh and the struggle to defeat it. Political developments in Baghdad have gone largely unnoticed, save for intermittent coverage of Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi’s supposed pursuit of meritocracy in the face of opposition from...
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Saudi Arabia’s forgotten war strikes back
The full implications of Saudi Arabia’s three-months old siege of the Qatif town of Awamiyah are only just beginning to emerge. Pictures depicting wholesale destruction and civil war-like conditions in the Shia-majority town speak to the intensity of the fighting. But more importantly, they provide a hint as to...
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US scales back ambitions in Syria to accommodate Russia
After months of dithering the Trump administration finally appears to be implementing a relatively coherent policy in Syria. The decision to focus exclusively on Daesh and completely forego any kinetic action against the Syrian government is decidedly bad news for the exiled Syrian opposition and the armed groups on...
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Syria ceasefire reflects big power diplomacy
The latest ceasefire in south-west Syria, negotiated by the United States and Russia, is a clear reflection of increasing US-Russian cooperation in the country. Whilst this is a welcome development in terms of managing the broader strategic ramifications of the Syrian conflict, nonetheless it falls far short of adequately...
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Britain’s counter-extremism strategy is under close scrutiny
The suppression of an important report into the funding of “extremist” activity in Britain by foreign sources is a clear indication of the gap between British foreign and domestic policies. It is an obvious example of the government prioritising sensitive foreign relations over transparency and maintaining public confidence. The...
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Defiant Qatar redefines the regional landscape
As expected Qatar has defied the extortionate demands made on it by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The stage is now set for a prolonged economic blockade and political isolation. But barring military action, Saudi Arabia and its allies will eventually have to moderate their...
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The liberation of Mosul has failed to eradicate Daesh in Iraq
As Iraqi forces continue to mop up the last remnants of Daesh from west Mosul, it is worth remembering that the jihadist group continues to maintain a significant presence in five other Iraqi provinces. The retaking of Mosul may inflict a symbolic blow to Daesh’s bogus caliphate but it...
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The Middle East needs an eccentric player like Qatar
The release of formal demands made of Qatar by the Saudi-led coalition bears striking similarities to 19th century-style gunboat diplomacy with its concept of issuing impossible-to-meet demands intended to escalate a situation into potential military action. Whilst military action in this case appears unlikely, there is every reason to...
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Iran is failing to capitalise on the Saudi-Qatar split
The intensifying split within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), as epitomised by the Saudi-led effort to isolate Qatar, has effectively ended (at least for the foreseeable future) Saudi Arabia’s drive to build a credible regional coalition against Iran. In that context, the Saudi-Qatar spat is clearly welcomed by Tehran,...
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Will the attack on Tehran lead Iran to change its regional policy?
Last Wednesday’s twin terror attacks in Tehran have come as a huge surprise for a number of reasons, not least because of the brazen breach of the Islamic Republic’s formidable counter-terrorism defences. Whilst Daesh has had its sights on Iran for more than three years, and just three months...
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A confrontation is looming on the Iraq-Syria border
Reports that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have warned Iraqi Shia militias not to enter SDF-controlled territory are, on the face of it, a potential addition to the complexity of the conflict in Syria. The SDF is dominated overwhelmingly by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish militia...
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The perennial dilemmas of British counterterrorism policy
Last week’s terrorist atrocity in Manchester has intensified the seemingly endless debates about British counterterrorism. The two most contentions features of this debate are centred on the roles of ideology and foreign policy as both causes and drivers of terrorist threats. The course and eventual resolution of these policy...
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Iran and US set to clash in Syria
Last Thursday’s US strike on a pro-Iranian armed group in the desert west of Syria’s Al-Tanf is being widely interpreted as a significant escalation in the Syrian conflict. The incident is all the more serious if reports that not only Iraqi militiamen but also Iranian military personnel were targeted...
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Hamas and Iran: A new era?
As the reactions to Hamas’ new charter continue apace, one important omission or at least something that has been under-reported is Hamas’ relationship with Iran. Long regarded as strong partners, the relationship between Iran and Hamas came under enormous strain following the latter’s decision in February 2012 to endorse...
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Hamas’ strategic quandary
The release of a new policy document by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has touched off a flurry of speculation as to the real political and strategic motives behind the apparent policy shift. Coupled with the election of the Gaza-based Ismail Haniyeh as the new leader of Hamas’ political...
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Turkey and US clash in northern Syria
Last week’s Turkish airstrikes on People’s Protection Units’ (YPG) positions in northern Syria and north-western Iraq followed by clashes between Turkish border guards and YPG forces have dramatically raised the stakes in the scramble to determine the political landscape of Syria’s Kurdish-majority region. Whilst at operational and tactical levels...
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Turkish ambitions set to grow in the wake of referendum
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s victory in the Turkish constitutional referendum has been widely interpreted in Europe as amounting to a shift away from democracy. Some observers have gone even further by pontificating on the end of the Turkish republic. These hyperbolic characterisations are obscuring the real significance of the referendum,...